Exploring the Uncertainty of Ukrainian Refugees

For Ukrainian refugees globally, the decision to return home is both central to their future and laden with huge uncertainty. More than two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, various studies have attempted to estimate the likelihood of refugees returning home or settling abroad permanently. A significant challenge these studies face is the refugees’ own uncertainty about their return. On average, 20–30 per cent of respondents, depending on how the questions are phrased, select ‘I don’t know’ when asked about their intentions to go back to Ukraine.

Unpredictable future

In December 2023, the Institute for Behavioral Studies at the American University Kyiv surveyed Ukrainian refugees and migrants in Poland to understand their plans for their future place of residence. To capture a comprehensive view of these plans, the study asked the respondents whether they agreed with the following statements:

• I plan to return to Ukraine as soon as possible.
• I plan to return to Ukraine in the foreseeable future.
• I plan to return to Ukraine someday.
• I would like to spend some time in Ukraine, for example on holiday, while living in Poland.
• I plan to stay in Poland.

Participants rated these statements on a scale from 1 (completely disagree) to 7 (completely agree), with a mid-range score of 4 indicating ‘Maybe’ or ‘I don’t know’. Through cluster analysis, three distinct groups emerged: 1) those intending to return home (45 per cent), 2) those inclined not to return (20 per cent), and 3) the undecided (35 per cent). Members of the last group, marked by their uncertainty, are of significant interest to their host nations, as this ambiguity complicates refugees’ ability to make long-term commitments and integrate effectively.

The undecided group showed notable hesitation: 47 per cent of them were uncertain about returning as soon as possible, and 41 per cent were unsure about returning in the foreseeable future. Among those who had a clearer vision of their return, whether positive or negative, only 4–6 per cent chose the ‘I don’t know’ option for these two questions. However, when asked about returning someday, only 18 per cent from the undecided group were uncertain, whereas 77 per cent expressed varying levels of agreement. Thus, while refugees demonstrate a long-term desire to go back to Ukraine, their immediate plans remain ambiguous.

Additionally, a considerable percentage (39 per cent) of respondents who were hesitant about returning was undecided about staying in Poland permanently, compared with 12–16 per centout of two other clusters.

Emotional responses to indecision

This indecision was mirrored in the respondents’ emotional state, with the undecided group exhibiting the highest levels of fear and uncertainty about the future (table 1). Participants were asked how often they experienced these two feelings, on a scale from 1 (never) to 5 (always).

The participants’ concerns were also evident in their responses to questions about when and how the war in Ukraine would end, with a majority unable to speculate on these outcomes. Of the respondents, 54 per cent answered ‘I don’t know’ to the question ‘When do you think the war will end?’ and 36 per cent were unsure on the question ‘Do you think that Ukraine will be able to regain the occupied territories?’. In both cases, ‘I don’t know’ was the most popular answer.

Demographic profile: the faces of uncertainty

Within the undecided cohort, the primary demographic was women aged 30–39, who constituted 45 per cent of respondents. Many of these women were married and lived with a partner (28 per cent), but a substantial proportion of them (17 per cent) were married but living separately, and a majority had children studying remotely in Ukrainian schools. Professionally, most were employed in Poland (58 per cent) or worked remotely for Ukrainian firms (13 per cent), indicating a higher employment rate among the undecided than among those with defined intentions.

In summary, the typical profile of an undecided Ukrainian refugee in Poland is that of a working woman in her thirties from eastern or southern Ukraine with dependent children who are engaged in remote Ukrainian education. Her hesitation about returning home is tied to concerns over the war’s end and a prevailing fear and state of uncertainty about the future.

Natalia Zaika works at the Institute for Behavioral Studies at the American University Kyiv and was a fellow at the Ukraine Research Network@ZOiS, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, until February 2024.