World Climate Conference in Baku: Azerbaijan’s Balancing Act for Global Recognition

In recent months, Azerbaijan has been the focus of international attention and criticism related to COP 29, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, which starts today and will run until 22 November in the country’s capital Baku. More than 35,000 international participants are expected. Hosting COP 29, a major multinational political event focusing on international climate action, is a challenge for a petro-state that generates 92 per cent of its export revenue from gas and oil and has poor policies on climate vulnerability and sustainable development. However, the government’s aim is to use the conference – the most high-profile event to be hosted by Azerbaijan since 1991 – as a major opportunity to gain international prestige and stimulate future economic development.

The authoritarian government’s ambitious goal is to demonstrate Azerbaijan's ability to perform on the global stage, not only for the next two weeks. It sees the event as a chance to improve Azerbaijan's ‘bad’ image from that of a corrupt autocracy and human rights abuser to a modern state with a stable government and reliable partner on the troubled Eurasian continent, thereby gaining the global recognition it seeks. Since the start of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, Azerbaijan has stepped in as a supplier of gas for Europe’s energy diversification policy, which has provoked some criticism of the country’s human rights record and Europe’s dependency on fossil fuels.

The conference is another opportunity to consolidate the political and economic power of the ruling dynasty, President Ilham Aliyev and his family, which managed to increase its popularity within Azerbaijan after regaining control over the territories of Nagorno-Karabakh by military intervention in September 2023. The snap parliamentary elections in February 2024  underlined the family’s monopoly on power and reinforced the status of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan party.

What the event means for Baku residents

Azerbaijan’s emergence as an international player has affected not only Baku's political climate, but also its built environment and urban life regulation. Over the past decade, Baku has visibly transformed and its urban landscape seems to be moving closer to the desired model of urban development as a new ‘Dubai’. It has undergone a radical process of urban renewal, evolving from a peripheral socialist city ‘in the Soviet South’ to a neoliberal city and regional metropolis on the Caspian Sea, with the ambitious aim of becoming a transport and commercial hub at the crossroads of the Middle Corridor and the North-South axis. Baku's international image as the 'Dubai of the Caspian Sea', as an oil and gas city with luxury hotels and iconic architecture, has given the city itself and the country at large a new and glossy veneer. Azerbaijan’s desire is to demonstrate to COP 29 participants its achievements at the ‘world’ level, brought about by investing in a variety of costly landmark projects and the construction of high-value sites such as the airport, seaports, promenades, shopping malls and convention centres for mega-events. The capital city is well-connected to more than 70 international airports, with non-stop flights to major cities such as London, Moscow, New York, Tel Aviv, New Delhi, Frankfurt and Brussels.

These recent developments have impressively transformed the city's appearance, but the benefits of oil wealth are felt by no more than a select few. The autocratic state, finance and real estate sectors control urban life. The last two decades have been marked by abrupt social change in the city, rapid and traumatic privatisation, state-orchestrated gentrification and inadequate urban policy without a real master plan, leading to social polarisation, social injustice and the demolition of old neighbourhoods and historic residential areas. In many cases, recent urban redevelopment has reduced the stock of affordable housing in central areas of the city and adversely affected recreational public spaces such as parks and small green spaces, threatening urban sociality. The city’s large venues, shopping centres, stadiums and smart residences hide deeper problems that are rarely discussed, and these amenities will likely become little more than costly ‘white elephants’ with high maintenance costs and an uncertain future.

During the climate summit, the authorities are imposing stringent security measures, accompanied by massive digital surveillance and restrictions on mobility in the city for ordinary citizens. Access to the city is reduced to a minimum, reminiscent of the strict rules in force during the Covid-19 lockdown. From 8 to 25 November, there will be an extraordinary three-week school holiday, online courses at universities, compulsory home-working for 70 per cent of public employees, restrictions on the use of old cars, and closure of central streets and promenades to private cars and buses. However, two weeks before COP 29, its Executive Director Elnur Soltanov announced that during the climate summit, the authorities did not plan to impose restrictions on residents leaving their homes or issue SMS permits for this purpose. As with previous mega-events, access to COP 29 will be restricted to Azerbaijan's economic and political elite, wealthy citizens and international guests only.

Azerbaijan’s future geopolitical vision

Aliyev is sending a signal to the Western world and is keen to build international connections while also maintaining cordial relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who supported Azerbaijan in the decision on who would host COP 29. After the signing of the Declaration of Allied Interactions between Russia and Azerbaijan on common foreign policy positions in February 2022, Putin’s official visit to Azerbaijan in August 2024 resulted in further agreements on cooperation in the areas of trade, special security services, infrastructure, health and education, including promoting the Russian language as the second language in schools and opening Russian universities in Azerbaijan.

Furthermore, to enhance Azerbaijan’s status as a transport hub, Aliyev's government has invested billions of dollars in a new port 60 km south of Baku, which will facilitate the transport of goods from China to Europe along the Middle Corridor, an evolving Trans-Caspian land route bypassing Russia, and along the North-South axis from Moscow to New Delhi. Azerbaijan is also strengthening relations with China in the areas of energy and trade. As China’s partner in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Azerbaijan is expecting to enhance its own strategic position in the South Caucasus region as a bridge to Central Asia that should bring new investment into the country’s economy.

The authoritarian regime’s multi-vector policy, neoliberal economy and autocratic urbanism will dominate Azerbaijan’s near future, leaving little room for social projects, free media and civil society. However, COP 29 may bring some shifts in the formulation of regional climate policy and underscore the growing importance of the South Caucasus in the global arena.

Tsypylma Darieva is a social anthropologist and a senior researcher at ZOiS, where she heads the Migration and Diversity research cluster.