Thinking ahead: Russia beyond 2024

The next presidential election in Russia is due in 2024. Concerned decision makers, experts, and observers already start thinking today about Russia’s path and development after this date. As the Russian constitution currently prevents incumbent president Vladimir Putin from being re-elected, the poll will most likely determine the country’s next head of state. Different outcomes could mean different futures for Europe.

What conditions will shape the run-up to the 2024 election? What type of leader is likely to emerge—if, indeed, a leadership change takes place? These are the questions at the heart of four basic scenarios developed by a select, high-level group of experts from the EU, Russia, and the USA. The aim was not to speculate about Putin’s successor, but to provide a basis for forward-looking discussions. The scenarios address domestic politics and the international context by looking not only at the role of the state and society, but also at geopolitical and geo-economic challenges.

The scenarios were first discussed on 16 February 2020, at a side event of the Munich Security Conference 2020.